Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Nuclear Deal With Iran May Bring Peace and Stability to Asia

Iran appears to be coming out of a long period of isolation and sanctions imposed by Western nations. Yet, it is still not completely out of the woods. The international community had to wait until June 30 for the final deal to be put into place. The framework of the nuclear deal reached between the U.S.-led P5+1 members on one side and Iran on the other could become another landmark statement of the Obama administration’s foreign policy, much like the domestic health policy popularly known as Obamacare. It opens the possibility of redefining international relations strategically the way Nixon’s trip to China did during 1970s.

The U.S.-Iran relationship was consigned to the cold storage after the overthrow of the government of Shah of Iran due to popular disenchantment, followed by Islamic revolution in Iran and subsequent taking of American hostages during Jimmy Carter’s presidency. The agreement, signed in Lausanne, Switzerland, which allowed Iran to retain and operate centrifugal plants, albeit on a much smaller scale, could be the first step in the warming of the Iran’s relationship with other countries. This negotiation could lead to an open international trade agreement, instead of dealings conducted in a clandestine manner. This nuclear deal virtually accepts Iran as a key player in the Western region of Asia, and in the process reduces Saudi Arabia’s clout.

Despite vehement opposition offered by Israel and Saudi Arabia, the consequence of being dwarfed politically by Western nations in general and the U.S. in particular has miffed them to the core. They have begun jockeying to undo the damage the nuclear deal has done to their prestige. However, the relentless ground attacks, aerial bombings, rocket firings, murders, beheadings, looting, and burnings among bitterly opposed Shia versus Sunni forces in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, as well as the rise of borderless extremist groups such as ISIS, al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas, Boko Haram in Nigeria, and even al-Shabaab (in the nearby Somalia-Kenya border region), etc. point to the abject failure of erstwhile tactics of balancing political aspirations among the countries in the Western region of Asia and Northern Africa.

Against this failure to maintain even a modicum of peace in the region, this nuclear deal seems like a positive step in the direction of thwarting the arms race in Asia. This bet by Obama on deterring Iran from building nuclear weapons through uranium enrichment at permitted centrifugal plants must pass the immediate test at home, where many Republicans as well as Democrats are openly skeptical of the agreement. If it goes as planned, peace is likely to prevail and citizens in the area, as well as the rest of Asia, can breathe easy.

All those countries that have maintained reasonably good economic and diplomatic relations with Iran, though in somewhat restrained manner, during the U.S.-imposed sanction days, any easing of restrictions allowing Iran to import, export, and earn revenue will be a hugely welcome step in the direction of peace. Moreover, it will enable increased energy supplies thereby maintaining its lower prices in international markets.

Economic gains notwithstanding, the final conclusion of the nuclear deal may help soothe the ties between Sunni-led Saudi Arabia and Shia-led Iran. This perception would help reduce the regional rivalries among nations and limit space for extremist groups from destabilizing the Western region of Asia and nearby areas. This nuclear deal will have a positive impact over peace and stability on Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as on China, India, and the rest of the globe.

Opinion and Blog By Binay Srivastava

Image Courtesy of WikiMedia Commons – Creative Commons License

Published in Headliners Today on 3 September 2015 under
URL http://headlinerstoday.com/blogs/nuclear-deal-with-iran-may-bring-peace-and-stability-to-asia/

Sunday, October 4, 2015

Is Tibet the Reason for India China Border Dispute?




India-China border stand-off continues where it has been for the past 50 years despite Chinese and Indian political leadership visiting and signing many agreements. The last few months have witnessed an increase in incursions by Chinese military into western, middle and eastern sectors of India. The Indian political leadership attributes such incidents to difference of perception between India and China over the Line of Actual Control. This timidity emboldens China to enter again anytime anywhere and stake claim to the area. Regular political, diplomatic, and military talks about initiating confidence-building measures over the last three decades have delivered only pious advisories for India and many giveaways to China.
Ever since 1959, Beijing has questioned the legitimacy of the Indian perception of border in Ladakh in the western sector and Arunachal in the eastern sector while middle sector remained relatively calm except for the recent incursion in Barahoti area. China has constructed an all-weather high-altitude 1,200 km long road through strategically important Aksai Chin (western sector) that links Tibet with Sinkiang. China does not recognize the British demarcated McMahon Line, which delineates the border between Arunachal Pradesh and Tibet. China annexed Tibet in 1949 and India accorded acceptance in 2003.
Apart from raising field disputes, Beijing plays mind games with equal felicity. Just before the India visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao in November 2006, China described Arunachal Pradesh as Southern Tibet and staked claim to entire area. Similarly, the visit by Premier Li Kequing was vitiated by the armed face off lasting three weeks in Ladakh this April. Disparaging words from Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) preceded the visit by Indian defense minister A.K.Anthony to China two months back.
While claiming an area, whether in the east or west, China cautions India to maintain peace and tranquility at the border. Has not time come for India to adopt a more active China policy for resolving the 4,000 km border (According to China the length of the border only 1600 km)?
China has also begun to nail India using Tibetan plateau as of strategic significance. Many rivers flowing into different countries originate there. Water table in the dry and cold north and east China has reportedly sunk to uneconomic levels. By building dams and canals across Yarlung Zangbo river in Tibet (known as Brahmaputra in India), Beijing wants to divert fresh water to her dry areas; unmindful that such activities will imperil the livelihood of those living in India’s northeast and Bangladesh.
While ethnic Tibetan populace seeking greater freedom is becoming restive with rising incidents of self-immolations, Beijing is responding threateningly claiming entire Arunachal Pradesh. Reacting angrily to New Delhi’s decision to station BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles in Arunachal Pradesh, India’s first offensive missiles deployment against any country, China blasted the action as ‘no match to its military.’
The root of bad-blood between India and China can be attributed to the shelter India provided to the Dalai Lama when he escaped from Tibet in 1959. The new leadership of China has recently lifted a 17-year ban on display of Dalai Lama’s photos in Tibet ostensibly to amplify policy liberalization but is decidedly meant to prevent further self-immolations that cause global outcries.
China says the Dalai Lama can help restore relations by renouncing calls for Tibet’s independence and accepting Tibet as a part of the country. The Chinese leadership is worried at the possible political instability when it imposes its nominee on the Tibetans after the Dalai Lama. While the older generation reveres the Dalai Lama and his call for peaceful protests, the GenNext, members of Tibetan Youth Congress may indulge in violent means to resist any imposition.
Because of close ethnic relationships between the residents living in Tibet and Arunachal, any eruption of violence in Tibet may vitiate atmosphere in Arunachal Pradesh: that may result in action by the Chinese military. Presumably, till the time Beijing has actually imposed its nominee as the Dalai Lama and Tibet is pacified beyond possibility of self-immolations, it is likely to maintain its claim on Arunachal Pradesh.
China demands India to hand over Tawang in Arunachal, which is the birth place of the sixth Dalai Lama. All discussions for settling border issues between India and China will likely cease only upon completion of “installation of a Beijing-selected Dalai Lama and peace in Tibet.” China then will likely recognize Arunachal Pradesh as a part of India.
Opinion and Blog By Binay Srivastava

Published in The Headliners Today dated 31 August 2015